Target Price

Categories: Banking, Investing

The Wall Street stockbroker/sell side analyst mumbles, "Well, um...if the company produces $1.20 in earnings this year, up from a dollar next year...and 20 percent growth is sustainable for the foreseeable future, then the stock should trade at, well, give or take 20 times earnings. And so forward earnings of $1.20 is, uh...a 24 dollar price target, up 6 bucks from $18, so uh...yeah, $24 is my target price." Yeah. That’s a target price.

A given stock is trading at whatever price. There’s some imaginary bowman, like Hawkeye from the Marvel movies aiming his arrow where the apple sits on the other guy’s head.

Why do target prices even exist? Well, in the '70s and '80s, Street analysts basically only gave 3 recommendationss: Buy, sell, and hold. But there needed to be more granularity. Like…sure, Disney was a great company and it always seemed to be a buy, but...at any price? Or just up to some number?

So analysts basically gave their stockbrokers an additional thing to talk to their clients about, i.e. when a stock did hit a given price target, the analyst would then raise it, i.e. raise the target for whatever reason, or would change their rating from, say, buy to hold.

How’s that work? Well, a Wall Street analyst presents to the world her view of the value of the given company, usually something presented in the form and flavor of earnings. Why earnings? Because every investor on Wall Street (whether they grew up covering newspaper print or semiconductors) speaks the language of earnings. That is, earnings apply to any industry as a rational driver of stock price multiples. Yes, sometimes the rationale behind target prices comes from weird valuation metrics, like revenue multiples...and usually there’s a lot of mumbling that, "Uh, well the flying car industry is brand new, with nobody having any profits and spending all their money to buy growth, so the industry trades at an average of 6x revenues, and we think YesFlyNoCrash should trade at a 1x revenue multiple premium to the market, because of, you know, its emphasis on safety…so with $100 million of revenues projected this year, it should trade at 7 times that number, for a valuation of $700 million...but today its market capitalization is only $550 million, so there’s some 25-ish percent upside from here if it hits our target price…"

But yeah. Let’s, uh...hope that’s the only target the flying cars hit.

Related or Semi-related Video

Finance: What is a target price?2 Views

00:00

And finance Allah shmoop What is a target price Oh

00:07

with Wall Street stock brokers Cell site analyst Mumbles Well

00:10

if the company produces a dollar twenty and earnings this

00:13

year up from a dollar next year and twenty percent

00:16

growth is sustainable for the foreseeable future than the stock

00:19

should trade it well give or take twenty times earnings

00:21

And so forward earnings of a dollar twenty is twenty

00:25

four dollars Price Target up six bucks from eighteen here

00:28

So yeah twenty for is my target price So that's

00:31

a target price It given stock's trading at whatever price

00:34

There's some imaginary Bowman like that boring guy from the

00:37

Marvel movies aiming his arrow from here to here where

00:42

the you know Apple sits on the other guy's hit

00:44

Why do target prices even exist Well in the seventies

00:47

and eighties Street analyst basically only gave three recommendations by

00:50

cell and old but there needed to be more granularity

00:53

like Well sure Disney was a great company and it

00:55

always seemed to be ABI but at any price or

00:58

just up to some number So Analyst basically gave their

01:01

stockbrokers and additional thing to talk to their clients about

01:04

I'ii want to stock did hit a given price target

01:07

The analyst would then raise it I raise the target

01:10

for whatever reason or would change their rating from say

01:13

by toe hold So how does that work Well the

01:16

Wall Street analyst presents to the world her view of

01:18

the value of the given company usually something presented in

01:21

the form and flavor of earnings or earnings Multiple Why

01:25

earnings Because every investor on Wall Street whether they grew

01:28

up covering newspaper print or semi conductors speaks the language

01:32

of earnings like Gap earnings official earnings that is earning

01:35

supplied Any industry is a rational driver of stock price

01:38

multiples And yes sometimes the rationale behind target prices comes

01:41

from weird evaluation metrics like revenue multiples And usually there's

01:45

a lot of mumbling that gets done behind the scenes

01:48

there Like uh well the flying car industry is brand

01:52

new with nobody having any profits or earnings and spending

01:55

all their money to buy growth So the industry trades

01:58

at an average of six times revenues and we think

02:00

yes fly No crash should trade at a one times

02:03

revenue multiple premium to the market because of you know

02:06

its emphasis on safety and not crashing So with one

02:10

hundred million of revenues projected this year it should trade

02:13

it seven times that number for evaluation of seven hundred

02:16

million dollars But today it's market capitalization is only five

02:20

hundred fifty million so there's some twenty five ish percent

02:23

upside from here if it hits our target price but

02:27

let's hope that's the only target the flying cars hit

Find other enlightening terms in Shmoop Finance Genius Bar(f)