Risk Tolerance

  

Categories: Trading, Derivatives

See: Risk Lover. See: Risk Seeking. See: Risk of Ruin.

You're 25. You're a lawyer. (Sorry.) You have a working career now of at lest 50 years. (Sorry.) You're committed to saving $1,000 a month, every month, "forever," no matter what. Because you have decades before you'll need that money in your retirement, you have lots of tolerance for risk, in that you really don't care what happens in the next 3-20 years, with markets swooning and diving and dancing all around. You are happy to just be long the market for a very long time. So maybe your entire portfolio is some index fund of small cap companies which pay no dividend, carry high P/E ratios, and should grow much faster than big, old, established companies. Your tolerance for volatility is big.

Now say hello to the 73-year-old you. You're starting to pull from your IRA. Your legal career has been replaced by a much better looking A.I.-driven robot. And you're...done. So you don't have the same tolerance you did before. In fact you have a fraction of it. You can't handle a down 40% market now, so you shift things around dramatically. Maybe your portfolio is only half equities or less, maybe a third, and those equities are probably old, stodgy dividend payers who don't really get crushed even in very bad markets, because their dividends so heavily cushion the fall. Maybe 1/3 is bonds, and the rest...maybe cash, or just short-term paper. Easy. No sweat. No worries. You'll have been handsomely rewarded financially for having been long the market for so long, likely with millions in savings and a long legal career you can look back on, and whimsically wish that you could have thrown a 100 mph fastball instead.

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Finance: What is Event Risk?6 Views

00:00

Finance a la shmoop what is event risk risk risk risque er yeah,

00:09

how'd that get in here all right moving on investing carries all kinds of risk

00:14

inflation risk is a biggie for those who like to buy safe government low-interest [100 dollar bill inflates]

00:19

low risk paper yes their investments always pay back but while they only get

00:23

like 2% kind of returns and in a world of 3% inflation well that's a big

00:28

problem well then there's market risk too [S&P 500 graph appears]

00:31

stock markets go up and down all the time so yes over time they go up but

00:36

well you might own stock in a great company that in a bad market gets taken

00:40

down like all the other boats in the ocean when a big quake hits and suddenly

00:45

it's a tsunami time and well everything drops but historically if you hold good [People in discussion at a meeting]

00:49

companies long enough well well their high quality bails you out of any

00:53

short-term losses you've suffered so if these are normal risks that happen all

00:58

the time they're things that just go on and on it's all part of the investing

01:02

world then what's an event risk which implies that something happened there

01:07

was a vent there was a finite period of time a finite situation that made bad

01:12

things happen with the overhang that events you know like a solar eclipse or [Solar eclipse appears]

01:17

or the election of a smart ethical congressman well those don't happen all

01:22

the time that's an event right it's a one-time thing well here's an event a

01:25

meteor hits the earth and all of a sudden while the most prized possessions [Meteor strikes earth]

01:30

are simple things like water and gas and land with wood and animals yeah that's

01:36

an event well the value of your Amazon and Netflix stock in that case well

01:40

those companies are probably not worth whole lot cuz internet is probably

01:44

dead or at least injured so when wizened old investors invest they typically [Old investors appear holding stock]

01:50

think about "once in a lifetime" events with event risk as being

01:56

a risk that they have to account for and yes thinking about that meteor hitting

02:01

the earth in fact is one of the things that professional portfolio manager

02:05

thinks about when building their fund and if you want to do something a little

02:08

more realistic than a meteor what about some crazy dictator and [Rocket appears in the sky]

02:12

Korea nuking us yeah not like one in a gazillion chance probably well more

02:17

recent event was the near-death experience of the US financial system in

02:21

the 2008/09 mortgage crisis where trust in banks and the banking system

02:25

almost led to the bankruptcy of Goldman Sachs Bank of America JP Morgan and a

02:29

bunch of other formerly perceived as bulletproof financial institutions yes

02:34

there was an event and a whole lot of risk and we almost died

02:37

financially anyway eventually the capital markets worked investors came to

02:42

trust the system again and they invested their money in the stock market with [Cash piles up]

02:45

staggering results in that the stock market went up some 400 percent in the

02:50

decade after the financial crisis so events are a real thing you have to

02:55

think about them until you don't [Man falling to the ground on a rocket]

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