Permanent Income

Categories: Econ

Win the lottery. Tap into a trust fund. Inherit the throne of some obscure but enormously wealthy country. Achieve tenure at some prestigious university...or maybe just get elected to the U.S. Senate. Those situations cover one concept of permanent income. Income that will be coming in forever, no matter what you do.

In economics, though, the concept is more particular. It's used to explain consumer spending patterns. Called the permanent income hypothesis, the model assumes that a person will spend money according to what they think their long-term average income will be. In other words, people get an idea in their head about how much they're likely to make going forward. Like...into the distant future. And that expectation drives their spending activity.

You’re an economist. We know...dare to dream. But you’re not just a run-of-the-mill, on-one-hand-and-on-the-other-hand type of economist. You are a very confident economist. Brash. Brazen. Impertinent. You just graduated last in your class from Jacksonville Online Economic Technical Institute and Culinary Academy. Still, you are 100%, without a doubt, definitely convinced that you will one day win the Nobel Prize in economics.

The Nobel Prize includes a cash award of around $900,000, depending on the year and Swedish currency exchange rates. You are positive you're going to win that someday. So, by permanent income theory, you count that in your permanent income. You’re 23 now, fresh out of Jack Econ Tech And Culinary...average lifespan is about 79 years. That gives you about 56 years to go.

Divide $900,000 by 56. That’s $16,071.43 extra that you can spend each year. You’ll have to borrow the money for now...at least until you get the call from Sweden.

Another example. You work at a factory that makes leashes and collars for pet ducks. You make $50,000 a year as a quality control inspector in the R&D department. You spend your days out back by the scientifically designed, man-made lake, leading ducks with experimental leashes.

You assume you'll keep this basic salary for the foreseeable future. Under the permanent income hypothesis, your assumed "permanent income" is $50,000. You'll spend up to that level. Now...you get some weird news. Your eccentric uncle decides he wants to give away his worldly belongings and move to a Buddhist commune in Mongolia. Your share: $5,000.

So this particular year, you brought in $55,000. You got your usual $50,000 for your job at the duck leash factory, and an additional, one-time bonus amount of $5,000 from your uncle.

Someone supporting the permanent income hypothesis would expect you to save the $5,000 from your uncle. You know the $5,000 is a one-time bonus. Your uncle has moved to the Buddhist commune and doesn't have any more money to give away. You don't have any other uncles.

Point is: the $5,000 gift is not likely to repeat. Your perception of your long-term "permanent income" hasn't changed. You still expect to earn $50,000 a year long-term. So you sock the $5,000 away for a rainy day. Next year, you get a promotion. You are now head of the duck collar quality control department. Your salary rises to $85,000. Your expectations rise as well.

You assume you'll be head of the department for the foreseeable future. You don't save the additional $35,000 in salary. You're happy to spend it. You trade in your Yaris for a Cadillac, and you skip the $5 wine rack for stuff in the $20 aisle.

Your new assumed permanent income has changed. Now you perceive $85,000 as your permanent income...so you spend accordingly. You buy a diamond collar for your own pet duck. Maybe a little extravagant, even for $85,000 a year. But you did get to use your employee discount.

Related or Semi-related Video

Econ: What is Permanent Income?0 Views

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And finance Allah shmoop What is permanent income Oh win

00:07

the lottery tap into a trust fund inherit the throne

00:11

of some obscure but enormously wealthy country achieved tenure at

00:15

some prestigious university Or maybe just get elected to the

00:19

U S Senate Those situations cover one concept of a

00:22

permanent income income that will be coming in forever no

00:26

matter what you do In economics though the concept is

00:28

more particular It's used to explain consumer spending patterns called

00:33

the permanent income hypothesis The model assumes that a person

00:36

will spend money according to what they think they're long

00:39

term Average income will be In other words people get

00:42

an idea in their head about how much they're likely

00:45

to make going forward like off into the way distant

00:48

future And that expectation then drives their spending activity So

00:52

you're an economist we know dare to dream But you're

00:55

not just a run of the mill On the one

00:58

hand and on the other hand type of economists you're

01:00

a very confident economist Brash brazen impertinence You just graduated

01:05

last in your class from Jacksonville Online Economic Technical Institute

01:10

and Culinary Academy I'll steal You are one hundred percent

01:13

without a doubt Definitely convinced you're one day going to

01:16

win that million dollar Nobel Prize in economics You're positive

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you're gonna win that dough someday Yeah So by permanent

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income theory you count that number in your permanent income

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Well you're twenty three now fresh out of Jackie Con

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tech and cool average life spans about seventy nine years

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That gives you about fifty six years to go divide

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a million bucks by fifty six And that's Ah seventeen

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grand dish extra that you Khun spend each year Well

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you'll have to borrow the money for now at least

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until you get a call from Sweden Another example You

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work in a factory that makes leashes and collars They're

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for pet ducks You make fifty grand a year Is

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a quality control inspector in the RND department You spend

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your days out back by the scientifically designed man made

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lake leading ducks along with the experimental leashes You assume

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you'll keep this basic salary for the foreseeable future Well

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under the permanent income hypothesis is you've assumed a permanent

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income is fifty grand You'll spend up to that level

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but not beyond that level Now you get some weird

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news You're eccentric Uncle decides he wants to give away

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his worldly belongings and move to a Buddhist commune in

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Mongolia Your share Five grand Okay so this particular year

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you brought in fifty five thousand right You've got your

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usual fifty grand for your job the ducklings factory and

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an additional one time bonus amount of five grand from

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your uncle Well someone supporting the permanent income hypothesis would

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expect you to save the five grand from your uncle

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You know the five thousand dollars a one time bonus

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Your uncle has moved to the Buddhist com unit Doesn't

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have any more money to give away You don't have

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any other sickly or weird uncles Point is the five

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grand gift is not likely to repeat your perception of

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your long term permanent income has not changed You still

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expect to earn fifty grand a year long term So

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you socked away the five grand you know for a

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rainy day Okay well then next year comes along and

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you get a promotion You're now head of the duck

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collar quality control department Your salary rises to eighty five

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thousand dollars and your expectations rise as well You assume

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you'll be head of the department or better forever least

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for the foreseeable future You don't say the additional thirty

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five grand in salary You're happy to spend it You

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trade in your Yaris that thing or Prius Maybe for

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a Cadillac and you skipped the five dollar wine rack

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for stuff in the twenty dollar I'll your new assumed

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permanent income has changed Now you perceive eighty five thousand

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dollars as your permanent income or income level so you

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spend it accordingly Then you buy a diamond collar for

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your own pet duck Yeah maybe a little extravagant even

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for an eighty five thousand dollars a year employee But

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well you did get to use your employee discount so 00:03:50.93 --> [endTime] you know it's a bargain

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