Well, it's a technique used to value companies. Or at least it was…in the stone age. The 50s, maybe.
It basically says that a company’s value is fully contained in the cash dividends it distributes back to investors.
This model is only useful for its historical relevance. Back in the old-timey caveman days, when there was essentially no research of real merit being done on the performance of investments of whatever flavor, the dividend discount model was the best thing investors had to value and investment in a company.
And remember: in those days, companies paid real dividends that were a meaningful percentage of the total value of the company.
Example:
A company pays a dollar a share this year in dividends. Historically, it has raised dividends at 3% a year. The dividend discount model discounts back to present value. A few odd things are worth noting in this horse-and-buggy-era formula. The Dividend Discount Model ignores the terminal, or end value, of the company. Like...say 20 years from now, the company is sold. The dividends are all that are really focused on. Seem strange? Well, maybe...but let’s say the discount rate is 10%, and the risk-free rate is 4%, for a total of 14% a year discounted back to the present. Doing the math, just looking at the terminal value of, say, $100M in a sale to be made 20 years from now, you take 1.14, put it to the 20th power to reflect 20 years of discounted valuation…and you say 1.14 to the 20th power is about 13.7. So to get the present value of $100M 20 years from now using this discount rate, you would divide the $100M by 13.7…and that means that the $100M is roughly $7.3M of value today.
Yeah, that’s a big haircut.
The formula focuses a lot on near-term dividend distribution, and it’s really more interesting as a relic of original financial research than anything directly useful today.
And if you find this interesting, then...we may have a gig for you here at Shmoop Finance Central.
Related or Semi-related Video
Finance: How Do You Calculate Rates of R...35 Views
finance - a la shmoop how do you calculate rates of return? well invest a dollar get
more than a dollar back right? well yeah you hope so anyway in in finance land [dollar bill on table]
and Wall Street and any other professional gig. well rates of return
from financial investments are generally stated as annual returns, so calculating
a rate of return revolves around the one year at a time thing. there are a ton of
curveballs that get thrown into these calculations. here's a big one,
dividends. well guess what clueless financial journalists with little to no [dividends defined]
real schooling in finance quote stock market returns all the time. let's say
that shares in random example industries traded at the same price at the
beginning of the 1970s as they did at the end of the decade. prices for random
example industries were totally flat from 1970 to 1980. that's what one of
those journalists might say. and they don't even get fired for making such a [man reports news]
narrow statement .no nothing happened at all. and wrong. had they taken this course
they'd have realized that monster-sized dividends were paid out during that time
period. five six seven eight percent a year, each year. yet the journalists
ignored them when they stated that the stock market was in fact flat for a
decade and maybe shares of that company were also flat for a decade. but it
implied that they got no return from their investment which is absolutely [icons of stock market and a stock deflate]
wrong. did readers get their money back for that bad journalistic work? yeah we
doubt it - well what about zero coupon bonds? that is their bonds that pay no
dividends or interest along the way and they sell at a discount to par. what does
that mean? that is $1,000 par value bond pays you a grand in seven years. well how
do you calculate the annualized rates of return there? well today that bond sells
for six hundred forty two dollars. like you buy it today for six hundred forty
two you get a thousand bucks in seven years. well what's the rate of return on [zero coupon bond rates of return listed]
that bond? hmm. well vanilla bonds like these we're a whole lot easier to
calculate. because like you got the interest rate right there on the thingy.
yeah so the question is really what interest rate will accrue and then
compound for this bond such that in exactly seven years you get a thousand
bucks? well if it compounded at ten percent a year the compounding would
look like this. you see the table right there and whoa we've already passed the
grand way ahead of seven years. so the compound rate must be less than ten
percent right well what if it compounded at five percent a year well then the [compound rate listed]
rates of return would look like this and basically we're just multiplying 1.0
five times a 6.2 and we take that compound totally multiply 1.05 again and
so on and so on. much closer .well here's the formula you'll want to remember.
where f is the face value PV is the present value and n is the number of
periods. well in our example the face values a thousand bucks, the present
value is 642 dollars and the number of periods is the number of years or seven
years. all right well then we just you know put our handy-dandy calculator to [mathematical formula shown]
work and get a yield of well right around here. so here's the key idea rates
of return are an annual thing when quoted among finance professionals. among
fun dance professionals well and maybe a different story. [three stooges pictured]
Up Next
What's a dividend? At will, the board of directors can pay a dividend on common stock. Usually, that payout is some percentage less than 100 of ear...
What is an Accumulated Dividend? Accumulated dividends are dividends paid on cumulative preferred stock. They are referred to as accumulated becaus...
What is the Dividend Discount Model? Valuation of stocks can take numerous forms. One way in which one perspective on undervalued stocks is determi...